For the last 10 months I have referred to May 2, 2011, as a key turn date, a date when so many asset markets topped and the USD bottomed. I thought that May 2 marked the end of the risk asset rally that started in  March 2009.

I have anticipated that the rally that began Oct 4 (another key turn date when so many asset markets bottomed) would "run out of steam" and turn lower...however, the benchmark S+P 500 stock index is now back at last year's May 2 highs and looks strong. A clear break above last year's highs may mean that the decline from May 2 to Oct 4 was only a correction, and that the rally from the March 2009 lows has more to go.

WTI crude oil also made a key high on May 2 last year but it is still $10 below those levels despite a strong rally the past two weeks.

The USD bottomed on the key May 2 date last year, and it remains well above those lows....the Euro has been weak, the commodity currencies have been relatively strong, and the Yen (finally?) dropped sharply this month, hitting 7 month lows against the USD.

There has been a dramatic breakdown in the "All-One-Market/Risk-on, Risk-off" trade as individual markets are now dancing to different drummers...instead of moving in lock-step.

From mid-December to late January I was cautiously trading the CAD and the S+P from the long side - cautiously because I was expecting the rally to "run out of steam." I was anticipating a turn in the markets but I was waiting for a confirmation before I got short.

(Without really getting a confirmation) I established a "one unit" short position in the CAD on Feb 3 following the asset market rally on the employment report and on Feb 8 I established a "one unit" trade to profit from a decline in the gold price. For the past couple of weeks these positions have traded modestly either side of unchanged...I still hold the positions but with the S+P advancing towards new highs I may liquidate them unless they start to slide from here.